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COMMUNIQUE DE PRESSE
Le dialogue intercongolais: Poker menteur ou n�gociation politique? / The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Political Negotiation or Game of Bluff?

ENGLISH TRANSLATION FOLLOWS

Bruxelles/Nairobi/Kinshasa, 16 Novembre 2001: L'�chec du dialogue intercongolais � Addis Abeba en octobre �tait pr�visible. Une guerre larv�e continue dans les Kivus; le rapport de forces entre le gouvernement de la RDC et les mouvements rebelles reste fluctuant et ne permet � aucun camp de s'engager dans les n�gociations avec confiance; et les pays bellig�rants n'ont aucun int�r�t � voir sortir du dialogue un gouvernement qui �chappe � leur contr�le. Autant de raisons qui expliquent pourquoi la r�union a �t� report�e � une date ult�rieure.

Le nouveau rapport d'ICG: Le dialogue intercongolais: N�gociation politique ou poker menteur? analyse l'impasse du processus de paix. Le Pr�sident Joseph Kabila et ses alli�s refuse de consid�rer un partage de pouvoir avec les rebelles sans garanties de retrait des troupes rwandaises et ougandaises de la RDC. Dans le m�me temps, les rebelles et leurs alli�s, le Rwanda et l'Ouganda conditionnent leur retrait � la mise en place d'un gouvernement de transition par le dialogue et � des garanties concr�tes pour leur s�curit�. En cons�quence un conflit de basse intensit� reste l'option privil�gi�e pour la plupart des acteurs.

Dr Francois Grignon, directeur du projet Afrique centrale de l'ICG, observe que: "ni les alli�s du pr�sident Kabila ni ses ennemis ne peuvent admettre la restauration de la souverainet� congolaise tant que leurs �shopping lists� s�curitaires et �conomiques n'ont pas �t� satisfaites. La communaut� internationale doit se concentrer sur les causes du conflit dans les Kivus. Tant que cette situation ne sera pas prise au s�rieux, le dialogue intercongolais restera un poker menteur.�

La communaut� internationale doit aussi reconna�tre que le pr�sident Kabila est trop faible pour absorber toutes les demandes externes et a besoin d'une m�diation externe. Fabienne Hara co-directrice du programme Afrique d'ICG souligne que " l'accord de cessez le feu de Lusaka, sign� il y a deux ans, doit se transformer en un accord de paix n�goci�". Cette transformation demande un soutien beaucoup plus actif du dialogue entre les bellig�rants � id�alement une implication directe du secr�taire g�n�ral des Nations unies. Le plus urgent est que la communaut� internationale �tablisse un m�canisme de coordination sur le d�sarmement, d�mobilisation, rapatriement et r�installation et r�insertion (DDRRR) des groupes arm�s � comme la r�solution 1376 du 9 novembre 2001 le demande.�

Un travail s�rieux de pr�paration doit �tre fait et des le�ons tir�es de l'�chec d'Addis Abeba avant la convocation de la prochaine rencontre du dialogue en Afrique du sud. Les positions des diff�rentes parties doivent �tre rapproch�es et la m�thodologie et les objectifs de la Facilitation r�vis�s. Enfin il est capital que les bellig�rants �trangers s'engagent officiellement � soutenir publiquement les r�sultats du dialogue intercongolais et que les gouvernements de Kinshasa and Harare mettent fin � leur soutien pour les groupes hutu arm�s.

Contacts: Katy Cronin or Sascha Pichler at ICG Brussels, tel +32-2-536 00 64 or 70, [email protected]

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Brussels/Nairobi/Kinshasa, 16 November 2001: The failure of the Inter-Congolese Dialogue in Addis Ababa in October was foreseeable. With war grinding on in the Kivus, neither the DRC government nor its opponents strong enough to gain the upper hand in negotiations, and no interest on the part of neighbouring powers in seeing a regime in Kinshasa that they don�t control, the process was postponed to an unspecified date.

ICG�s new report, The Inter-Congolese Dialogue: Political Negotiation or a Game of Bluff? analyses the impasse in the peace process. President Joseph Kabila and his backers refuse to consider power-sharing through the Dialogue with anti-government rebels without guarantees of Rwanda and Uganda�s full withdrawal from DRC. At the same time, the rebels and their sponsors, including Rwanda and Uganda, refuse to consider full withdrawal until a transition government is established through the Dialogue and their security is guaranteed. As a result, low-intensity conflict remains the preferred option for most of the external actors.

ICG Central Africa Project Director Dr Francois Grignon said: �Neither President Kabila�s allies, nor his enemies, will allow full restoration of Congolese sovereignty and territorial integrity until their own political, economic and security �shopping lists� have been satisfied. The international community should become more proactive in countering the dynamics that maintain the conflict in the Kivus. Until this occurs the Inter-Congolese Dialogue will remain a game of bluff.�

The international community must recognise that the Kabila government is too weak to meet expectations without an external mediator or guarantor. ICG Africa Program Co-Director Fabienne Hara said: �The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement, signed two years ago, must become a fully negotiated Peace Agreement. This requires much more active support for direct dialogue between the belligerents � ideally with the personal involvement of the United Nations Secretary General. At the very least, the international community must establish a joint co-ordination mechanism on disarmament, demobilisation, repatriation, resettlement and reintegration (DDRRR) of the armed groups � as called for in UN Resolution 1376 of 7 November 2001.�

Detailed preparation work must be undertaken, and lessons learned from the failure in Addis Ababa before any new meeting is called in South Africa. Energetic diplomacy is needed to bring the parties closer together and a detailed review of the entire process, including the methodology of the facilitation team, must be carried out.

Finally it is vital that foreign belligerents make a formal public commitment to supporting the resolutions adopted by the Dialogue and that the Kinshasa and Harare governments end their support for the rebel forces.

Contacts: Katy Cronin or Sascha Pichler at ICG Brussels, tel +32-2-536 00 64 or 70, [email protected]

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