Amman/Brussels, 24 February 2003: The International Crisis Group (ICG) today publishes a report, Iraq Policy Briefing: Is There an Alternative to War?* which analyses the acute policy dilemmas the international community faces over Iraq.

"Everyone acknowledges that war should be the last resort. But what is also clear is that the alternative to war is not to do nothing. Ensuring that Iraq does not constitute a threat, disarming it as demanded by Resolution 1441, and improving the desolate position of the Iraqi people are all legitimate and broadly supported goals which must continue to be pursued", said ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley.

The report is divided into four sections, each addressing a distinct course of action and identifying its pros and cons:

• Go to war now: what are the strengths and weaknesses of the three different rationales that have been advanced to justify military action, with or without further UN Security Council approval – i.e. the threat the Iraqi regime presents to international peace and security; its non–compliance with Security Council disarmament demands; and the Iraqi regime's treatment of its own people?

• Set a new disarmament deadline: could new dates and benchmarks produce Saddam's cooperation; force him into exile; encourage a coup against him; or at least generate more consensus about going to war than now exists?

• Give more time to the inspectors: would this help achieve the disarmament objective, an ongoing containment objective, both of them, or neither? Would it help or hinder international objectives to arm the inspectors?

• Opt for an alternative strategy of stronger containment, deterrence and diplomacy ("CDD-Plus"): could this be implemented in a way that both achieves international objectives and does not undermine the credibility of the UN and those seeking to enforce its resolutions?

The report does not offer final conclusions on any of these issues, but is intended to help clarify the choices the international community must make, and to contribute constructively to the public debate about them. As the report states at the outset, the issues are much more finely balanced than most of those publicly supporting or opposing a war are prepared to acknowledge.

"International consensus about how to achieve agreed objectives seems further away than ever", said ICG President Gareth Evans. "It would obviously be helpful if what is done, and how it is done, reunites rather than further divides the international community. ICG's hope – if not expectation – is that a systematic dissection of the issues of the kind we have attempted here may help to achieve that."

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*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org

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