Jakarta/Brussels, 9 May 2003: The Indonesian government is preparing for war in Aceh. It has set a 12 May 2003 deadline for the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) to accept Indonesian sovereignty or face all-out war. However the International Crisis Group has repeatedly warned that a military approach alone will not solve this conflict, largely because of the Indonesian military's inability to control its own troops.

A new ICG briefing paper, Aceh: Why the military option still won't work*, says both the GAM and the Indonesian military (TNI) are to blame for the collapse of the peace process set in motion by the historic Cessation of Hostilities Agreement (CoHA) of 9 December 2002. Neither side has shown any real interest in making the agreement work.

ICG Jakarta Project Director Sidney Jones says: "There is no reason to believe that the planned offensive will be conducted any more carefully than those in the past. The move toward war in Aceh underscores the urgent need for military reform to get back on track, and for domestic and international pressure to be exerted toward that end".

ICG urges that opportunities for resumption of negotiations should be continuously explored and all possible effort made to ensure that military operations are kept as limited, as transparent and as short as possible.

ICG also sets out four options available to Indonesia and assesses each of them. Briefly, they are:

• Negotiations with GAM – Resumption of talks may have to await changes in leadership in one or both of the two sides, changes in the situation on the ground in Aceh, or a behind-the-scenes effort by interested parties in a way less susceptible to grandstanding.

• Buying off GAM - Unlikely to work at the leadership level.

• Marginalising GAM - the Indonesian government can only reduce support for independence by offering something better, and it hasn't thus far. Military operations are not going to persuade the Acehnese that Jakarta is likely to deliver good governance any time soon.

• Military operations - The clamour to crush GAM is growing everywhere except in Aceh. However, operations are likely to produce another downward spiral that will mean misery for the civilian population and a new generation of angry rebels.

Sidney Jones said: "Past mistakes must be avoided. The threat from GAM needs to be addressed, but military action should be kept to an absolute minimum and every effort made to make civilian institutions function far better then they do now".

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Katy Cronin (London) +44-(0)20 7981 0330
email: [email protected]
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Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org

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