Washington DC/Brussels, 31 July 2003: The International Crisis Group tomorrow publishes North Korea: A Phased Negotiation Strategy*, a detailed examination of the policy options for a peaceful resolution of the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula. The report makes a plea for urgent diplomatic action – backed by the threat of sanctions and, ultimately, military force if negotiations fail.
“North Korea probably has the materials, the capability – and on present indications, the intention – to make six nuclear weapons within a few months, and more than 200 by 2010”, said ICG President Gareth Evans. “There is a real, not fanciful, risk that it may try to export them to other countries or terrorist groups. And its possession of them could spark a nuclear arms race in North East Asia. Getting Pyongyang off this track, while there is still time, is the single most important and urgent security task in the world today.”
The report says that any military conflict on the Korean Peninsula would be a ‘catastrophe’, and points to the enormous risks associated with any attempt at a limited pre-emptive strike, let alone full-scale invasion. But ICG accepts that to be successful any diplomatic approach will have to be married with a credible threat of force. The report argues for a four-phased strategy:
- An initial ‘no attack’ assurance by the U.S. for a six-month negotiating period, conditional upon all North Korean nuclear activity verifiably halting;
- Serious time-limited negotiations, with the U.S. offering multiple security, political and economic incentives in return for the complete, irreversible and verifiable elimination of North Korea’s nuclear weapons program;
- Graduated sanctions, focusing initially on hard currency earnings, to be implemented if negotiations fail;
- Ultimate application of military force as necessary and appropriate – if other measures fail and there is credible evidence of North Korea preparing to use nuclear weapons or transfer them to any third state or non-state entity.
The report makes clear the critical role of the key neighbouring countries – China, South Korea, Japan and Russia – and the need for them to support, or at least acquiesce in, the proposed U.S.-led strategy, recognising that only if all diplomatic means are exhausted is there any chance of countries in the region supporting a more forceful approach.
“The situation is extremely dangerous, and time is running out. More ‘talks’, restating familiar positions, are not enough. What are needed now are real negotiations. In taking this course the Bush Administration would not be seen as ‘rewarding bad behaviour’, but as engaging in statesmanship”, Mr Evans said.
Media Contacts: Katy Cronin (London) +44 20
7981 0330 [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels)
+32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785
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*Read the ICG report in full on our website: http://www.crisisweb.org/
The International Crisis Group (ICG) is an independent,
non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 90 staff members on five
continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to
prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
