Amman/Brussels, 30 July 2003: A new briefing paper published today by the International Crisis Group (ICG) examines how the Lebanese political-military organisation Hizbollah has been affected by the Iraq war, the Israeli-Palestinian peace process and mounting U.S. pressure on Syria and Iran.
Hizbollah: Rebel Without A Cause?* reveals an organisation that is perplexed by recent events and struggling to find its footing. Outward self-confidence conceals deeper doubt about its role and possible theatres of action. The decision it faces is a momentous one: whether to become a more conventional Lebanese political party and renounce the option of armed struggle.
“One after another, Hizbollah’s local and regional cards have been pulled”, said ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley. “Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May 2000 deprived it of its principal raison d’être, and the swift U.S. victory in Iraq has reduced the immediate prospect of being drawn into significant conflict there. Hizbollah’s ability to invoke the Palestinian struggle as justification for armed action is also diminished while within Lebanon itself questions are being raised about its future with surprising candour. Today, more than ever before, Hizbollah’s purpose and fate hang in the balance”.
While penetrating the organisation’s decision-making process is almost impossible, ICG field research suggests that Hizbollah has adopted a wait-and-see approach, banking on future developments in Iraq and on the Israeli-Palestinian front that, by radicalising the region, might renew either Hizbollah’s purpose or its patrons’ strength.
ICG Analyst Reinoud Leenders said: “Hizbollah is counting on U.S. missteps and mounting casualties in Iraq, a growth in Iranian influence in that country and a breakdown in the Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire to shift the balance of power and create an environment in which it can survive intact and perhaps even revert to a more activist role”.
The West and especially the U.S. should be tuning their policies accordingly. To be effective, a policy that pressures countries and organisations that sponsor or engage in armed attacks ought also to offer the prospect of genuine gain if they cease to do so.
Putting and maintaining pressure on Hizbollah, Syria and Iran undoubtedly will play an important part in determining the future of the region. But for the U.S., getting things right in Iraq and moving forcefully toward a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, seriously engaging Syria and Iran and encouraging Hizbollah's conversion into a purely civilian political actor are likely to have the greatest and most sustainable impact.
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*Read the briefing paper in full on our website: http://www.crisisweb.org/
The International Crisis Group (ICG) is an independent,
non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 90 staff members on five
continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to
prevent and resolve deadly conflict.
