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  Iraq: What Lies Beneath
Implications for international decision-making

Amman/Brussels, 1 October 2002: The International Crisis Group today publishes a detailed analysis of the major political forces in Iraq and assesses the main challenges involved in building a new political order. The report, Iraq Backgrounder: What Lies Beneath, does not seek to predict the future course of events in Iraq, or to argue for any particular course of action. However it should be required reading for decision-makers, media and all those interested in the future of Iraq and the region.

ICG President Gareth Evans said: “Much public attention has been focused on the prospects of a war and how it might unfold – but far less has been devoted to the question of what comes next. Yet the challenges of reconstructing Iraq’s political order – either by peaceful transition or after a bloody confrontation - are immensely more complex than is usually acknowledged. The task of building a stable and pluralistic Iraq is enormous”.

In this extended background report, ICG presents up to date information on the mechanics of Saddam Hussein’s rule, the political dynamics between various religious and ethnic groups and the potential role of the externally-based opposition. It considers the current and potential role of the military, the implications of rifts between Iraq’s Shiite and Sunni Muslims, Kurdish politics and tribal influences.

ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said: “Iraq does not divide neatly as people often assume into a Shiite south, a Sunni centre and Kurdish north. There are tribal, ideological and class rivalries that may well produce violent confrontations and a continued militarisation of politics. It is against this backdrop that the international community will need to reflect about the future of Iraq, regardless of when and how a transition takes place”.


MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]

Ana Caprile (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.70
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-408 8012
This report and all ICG reports are available on our website www.crisisweb.org


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