Sudan’s civil war has now stretched into its fourth year, and the human toll continues to climb even as international attention drifts toward other conflicts. What began in April 2023 as a violent power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has evolved into one of the world’s largest displacement and hunger emergencies, with fighting now reaching cities that had, until recently, been spared the worst of the violence.
In recent weeks, the central city of El Obeid has become the latest flashpoint. Advancing RSF fighters have besieged the city, and drone strikes on civilian areas have forced more than 11,000 residents, over 5,500 of them children, to flee in just the past two weeks. The United Nations has warned that as many as 500,000 civilians remain trapped in or near the city, at risk of mass atrocities if the siege continues to tighten. Aid workers describe a familiar pattern: encirclement, bombardment, and the slow strangulation of food, water, and medical supplies to a besieged population.
The broader humanitarian picture is just as alarming. An estimated 30 million people required humanitarian assistance last year, and that number is projected to climb to 33.7 million in 2026, roughly two out of every three people in the country. More than 61 percent of the population is now acutely food insecure. In parts of Darfur and Kordofan, families report surviving on a single meal a day or less, with some resorting to boiling leaves or eating animal feed simply to stay alive.
Disease has compounded the crisis. Cholera, malaria, and dengue fever are spreading simultaneously across a health system that has been gutted by three years of war, with hospitals looted, destroyed, or abandoned, and medical staff killed or displaced. Cholera alone has produced over 1,100 confirmed cases and more than 120 deaths since the current outbreak began, figures aid workers say likely undercount the true scale given how little of the country health monitors can still reach.
What makes the situation especially difficult to resolve is the absence of a clear path to negotiation. Repeated ceasefire efforts led by regional and international mediators have failed to hold, and both the SAF and the RSF continue to pursue battlefield advantage rather than a political settlement. Meanwhile, disruptions far from Sudan’s borders, including instability affecting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, have complicated the logistics of getting aid into the country at all, adding delays to an already overstretched relief pipeline.
For a conflict of this scale, sustained on-the-ground reporting matters. Al Jazeera’s coverage of the siege of El Obeid offers a detailed look at why the city has become so pivotal to the war’s next phase, and is worth reading for anyone trying to understand where the conflict may be headed.