Jakarta/Brussels, 27 February 2003: In a report released today,
the International Crisis Group (ICG) said that a 9 December 2002
agreement between the Indonesian government and pro-independence rebels in Aceh
might be the last chance to end a 26-year-old conflict. "This agreement is
Aceh's last best hope," said Sidney Jones, Indonesia Project Director for ICG
in Jakarta. "If it succeeds, not everyone wins, but if it fails, everyone loses".
The report,
Aceh: A Fragile Peace*, argues that despite a dramatic drop in violence since the
agreement was signed, the failure to resolve major issues between the two
parties and the low credibility of the provincial government could wreck the
prospects for peace.
The leadership of the pro-independence Free Aceh Movement
(Gerakan Aceh Merdeka or GAM) has accepted Aceh's autonomy under Indonesian
sovereignty, granted under an August 2001 law, as a starting point for talks
but not as a political end. The government in Jakarta
is adamant that autonomy is the final offer but has given the rebels few
incentives to work within the Indonesian political system.
Sidney Jones said: "GAM appears to be systematically moving
into the void left by a widely discredited provincial government. As long as
that government is seen to embody autonomy, many Acehnese will view
independence as preferable. While keeping the cease-fire is crucial, it is
equally important to improve governance in Aceh".
To ensure peace, the report urges both Jakarta
and GAM to refrain from actions that violate the letter or spirit of the
agreement and support the agreed process for investigations into reported
violations. It calls on the government to offer GAM more realistic incentives
to take part in the political process and to be more active in reducing
corruption. Ensuring direct elections of local officials is key, the report
argues, as is supporting the legal changes that would allow for local parties.
ICG reviews the history of the negotiations and explains
that this accord is different from all previous efforts because it has
international monitors and is backed by the highest levels of government and a
broad range of donors. If it fails, ICG warns, intensive military operations
are all but inevitable, but this is not a conflict that can be solved
militarily.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.65
Kathy Ward (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
