Amman/Brussels, 4 December 2002: The International Crisis Group (ICG)
today publishes
Voices from the Iraqi Street, based on dozens of interviews in September and
October with Iraqis in Baghdad, Mosul and Najaf of different ages, backgrounds
and religious groups.
ICG found virtually all those with whom we spoke far more
willing than expected, and far more than those similarly interviewed in
previous years, to talk candidly about their attitudes towards the regime, the
opposition and a possible U.S.-led war. The briefing suggests that this alone
is a strong indication of the regime’s diminished ability to instil fear and of
the feelings shared by many Iraqis that some kind of political change is now
unavoidable.
The most notable conclusions to be drawn from ICG’s interviews are:
There is some concern about the potential for violence,
anarchy and score-settling that might accompany forceful regime change, but the
overwhelming sentiment is one of frustration and impatience with the status quo
and desire for "normalcy". A significant number of those interviewed expressed
the view that, if such a change required an American-led attack, they would support it.
Thoughts about a post-Saddam Iraq remain extremely vague
and inarticulate. The opposition in exile is viewed with considerable suspicion and,
in some instances, fear. Instead, many Iraqis appear to place their hope
in a long-term U.S. involvement.
ICG President Gareth Evans said: "Necessarily limited as our
survey was, it was striking and unexpected to find how much willingness there
is to embrace a U.S.-led war as a scenario for change. But that doesn't in
itself mean that war is either advisable or inevitable. Not only does the "further
material breach" criterion have to be established, but the Security Council has
to weigh the benefits of military intervention against
its costs in terms of loss of life, material and economic damage, regional
spillover effects, and possibly distracting from and complicating the war on
terrorism”.
The briefing also notes that it should not be assumed that
such support as may exist for a U.S. operation is unconditional. Should any war
be bloody and protracted, or not followed by a major international reconstruction
effort, that support may not be very long sustained.
ICG's briefing concludes that while for the international
community, the question is whether or not war should be waged, for ordinary
Iraqis the issue appears differently. Having lived since 1980 through a
devastating conflict with Iran, Desert Storm, a decade of sanctions, international
isolation and periodic U.S. and British air attacks, the question for those we
interviewed is not whether a war will take place, but whether a state of war will be ended.
ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said: "What
emerges starkly in this briefing paper is a picture of a population worn down
by what it has been forced to endure and eager for a change. For them, the
status quo – harsh economic sanctions and domestic repression – is not
sustainable. This is a message that ought to be heeded, regardless of whether
the UN inspections succeed and regardless of whether a U.S.-led war is the final
outcome".
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
This report and all ICG reports are available on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
