Amman/Brussels, 19 March 2003: Assuming the U.S.-led war in Iraq proceeds, the threat of a violent eruption in Northern Iraq between Kurds and Turks is very great. A new report published today by the International Crisis Group (ICG), War in Iraq: What's Next for the Kurds?*, analyses the conflict scenarios and outlines a strategy for preventing them.

At the heart of all conflict scenarios is the city of Kirkuk. For the Kurds, it is the ultimate prize – a treasured possession they feel they lost and must now seek to regain. To Turkey, concerned about inflaming the ambitions of its own Kurdish population, capture of Kirkuk by the Kurds would represent an undiluted bid for independence and would not be tolerated. For any future Iraqi government, the oil-rich Kirkuk region will continue to be a vital source of income, the loss of which by force would constitute an act of war. The current Iraqi regime has also carried out a massive 'Arabisation' policy in the north, and the return of displaced Kurds trying to reclaim their old homes may result in a new wave of expulsions and violence.

The United States has publicly expressed its commitment to the territorial integrity of Iraq: independence for the Kurds is not an acceptable outcome. Turkey also will not tolerate any degree of sovereignty for Iraqi Kurds, seeing even federation as a way station to independence and a bad example to its own Kurds. Reflecting these concerns, several thousand Turkish troops are now in Northern Iraq and tens of thousands more are poised to enter the country.

ICG's Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said: "Any last minute agreement between the U.S. and Turkey on the war should not allow Turkey to expand its mission in Northern Iraq beyond the legitimate defence of its security interests in the border areas. If war goes ahead, to avoid an explosion in the north the United States must urgently take three important steps:

• get its own forces to Kirkuk first;

• ensure that Turkey continues to exercise restraint; and

• simultaneously persuade the Iraqi Kurds to take no action that will risk provoking Turkey".

This ICG report explores the governance options for the Kurds - statehood, federalism and autonomy – and the chances of a return to the mountains by Kurdish fighters if a new Baghdad regime remains heavily centralised and repressive. Middle East Project Director Joost Hiltermann said:
"Facing a government impervious to their demands would force the Kurds into active opposition and possibly a return to armed rebellion. For the sake of peace and stability in a future Iraq, achieving a negotiated solution that guarantees the Iraqi Kurds a substantial degree of autonomy and a real role in the central government should be an absolute priority for the U.S."

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Katy Cronin (London) +44-(0)20 7981 0330
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org

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