Harare/Brussels, 10 March 2003: Behind the scenes in Zimbabwe,
a succession battle appears to have begun following indications that senior
ZANU-PF officials are exploring possible retirement scenarios for President
Robert Mugabe. A new report from the International Crisis Group,
Zimbabwe: Danger and Opportunity,
details the splits in the ruling party and the dangers and opportunities
involved in a post-Mugabe transition. In this context ICG urges the African
Union to create a new mediation effort that involves all relevant Zimbabwean
stakeholders and aims to restore legitimacy to the Harare government.
Ever since President Mugabe's ruling ZANU-PF party rigged
the presidential election last year, the country has been heading ominously
towards potential state collapse. The economy is imploding, a government-created
food crisis is turning Zimbabwe into a beggar nation and deepening state sponsored violence
could degenerate into unstructured conflict across the country.
However, in the face of this dangerous crisis and the possibility of real
political change, the international community has become even more divided. In the Commonwealth,
South Africa and Nigeria are arguing against all the evidence that Zimbabwe's suspension
should be lifted. The Southern African Development Community (SADC) and the African Union
(AU) have yet to engage in a sustained fashion. The European Union is rent by division, with
France's invitation to Mugabe to participate in a pan-African summit in Paris almost putting
an end to the targeted sanctions regime imposed shortly after the election. The U.S. remains
a weak actor, implementing a promised asset freeze almost a year after it promised because
of its own mid-level policy disagreements.
ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast said: "As long as the
international community is split, President Mugabe will win the public relations and political
battle. A fresh effort is urgently needed to try to resolve Zimbabwe's political crisis, in
particular by restarting negotiations between ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for
Democratic Change (MDC)."
Similar talks under the leadership of Nigeria and South Africa were
abandoned last year when the ruling party walked out of the process. New talks should preferably
take place under the leadership of either the African Union or the Commonwealth. They should
build on the efforts of Nigeria and South Africa, but also involve a country like Senegal,
Ghana or Kenya, which have all made the transition from post-liberation leadership to government
by the former opposition. The focus of the process should be on creating a transitional
administration, restoring the rule of law, finding an electoral compromise, reforming economic
policies, ensuring a more orderly land reform program, and creating an exit strategy for President Mugabe.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44-(0)20 7981 0330
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
