Khartoum/Brussels, 25 June 2003: There is a real potential for those who feel ignored by the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) peace process in Sudan to undermine any deal that is between only the Khartoum government and the rebel Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) in the South.
A new briefing paper published today by the International Crisis Group (ICG), Sudan’s Other Wars, says that the marginalised areas of Sudan pose a serious problem for peacemaking and the demands of these communities must be adequately addressed by the IGAD process. Their fear of being shunted aside in an SPLA-government peace has led them to intensify conflict as a way of calling attention to their problems before any agreement is signed.
The marginalised areas fall into two categories. The first are the so-called “Three Areas” of Abyei, the Nuba Mountains and Southern Blue Nile, which are being discussed between the government and SPLA in talks outside the IGAD process. The second category includes areas like Darfur in the west, which has seen a major upsurge in fighting since February but is excluded from any peace negotiations.
ICG Special Adviser on Africa John Prendergast said: “The potential success of the IGAD peace process is actually inflaming conflict, as non-Southern opposition elements scramble to make their issues heard through the barrel of the gun. Much of the tension is being fed by the same factors that led to the long-running war in southern Sudan: a central government that has exploited local resources, imposed its religious and cultural beliefs on diverse populations and consistently pitted local tribes and ethnic groups against each other for short term tactical gain. It is clear that Sudan’s crisis is systemic and the solution cannot be only a southern one”.
It is essential that the discussions on the Three Areas are clearly linked to the IGAD process and recognised as a potential deal-breaker unless the interests of the disaffected populations are further accommodated. The violence in Darfur should be the subject of a separate and concentrated initiative by the Khartoum government, strongly encouraged by the international community, to end hostilities and ensure that all concerns are addressed within the IGAD process.
ICG Sudan analyst David Mozersky said: “Any agreement under IGAD that deals exclusively with the issues of the South is liable to fall apart during implementation. By including the legitimate concerns of the marginalised areas, the likelihood that the agreement will be sustainable nationally, and that this war-devastated country will once and for all find peace, would increase dramatically”.
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