After decades of intermittent war over Nagorno-Karabakh, Armenia and Azerbaijan have moved closer to a formal peace than at any point since the conflict began, though significant obstacles remain before that peace can be considered secure. Following Azerbaijan’s decisive 2023 military operation, which resulted in the displacement of the region’s ethnic Armenian population, the core territorial dispute that defined the conflict for over thirty years was effectively settled on the ground, clearing the way for broader peace talks.
A framework peace agreement, initialed with American mediation, laid out terms for normalizing relations, including mutual recognition of territorial integrity, the establishment of transit corridors connecting Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave, and a commitment to resolve remaining disputes through dialogue rather than force. Since then, both governments have reported progress on border delimitation, economic cooperation, and diplomatic normalization, and intelligence assessments on both sides have described the likelihood of renewed full-scale war as low.
Still, meaningful sticking points remain. Azerbaijan has insisted that Armenia amend its constitution to remove language that could be read as a territorial claim over Nagorno-Karabakh, a change Armenia’s government has said it will only pursue through a broader constitutional referendum. That referendum has been tentatively linked to future elections, meaning the issue is likely to remain unresolved for some time yet, leaving a legal ambiguity that could complicate the peace process if political winds shift.
Domestically, the peace process has proven politically costly for Armenia’s leadership. The territorial losses and the government’s willingness to negotiate directly with Baku have been deeply unpopular with segments of the Armenian public, and recent parliamentary elections became, in part, a referendum on the peace process itself, with the governing party facing significant backlash from voters who viewed the settlement as a national humiliation.
The fate of the displaced ethnic Armenian population from Nagorno-Karabakh also remains largely unresolved. The vast majority relocated to Armenia following the 2023 exodus, and by early this year, the last remaining Armenian residents of the region had been transferred out entirely, closing a chapter on a community that had lived in the territory for generations.
As one regional tracker recently noted, the broader trajectory of the relationship has been toward stabilization even as specific legal and political disputes remain unresolved.
Whether this fragile peace holds will depend heavily on whether both governments can withstand domestic political pressure long enough to finalize the remaining terms, a test that will likely play out over the next several years rather than being resolved quickly.