Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement

<body bgcolor="#ffffff"> <table width="520" border="0"> <tr> <td colspan="2"> <table cellpadding="0" border="0" cellspacing="0"> <tr> <td valign="top"><img border="0" height="74" src="../../../images/t_bosnia.gif" width="292"> </td> <td valign="top"><img border="0" height="74" src="../../../images/tnav.gif" usemap="#tnav" width="226"> </td> <map name="tnav"> <area shape="RECT" coords="6,14,115,28" href="../../../projects/bosnia/Default.html" target="main"> <area shape="RECT" coords="7,29,97,43" href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports.html" target="main"> <area shape="RECT" coords="8,47,57,57" href="../../../projects/bosnia/map.html" target="main"> <area shape="RECT" coords="0" , 0, 0, 0> </map> </tr> </table> </td> </tr> <tr> <td align="left" valign="top"> <h1>Is Dayton Failing?: Bosnia Four Years After the Peace Agreement</h1> <p class="small">28 October 1999<br> <table width="120" bgcolor="#eeeeee" border="0" align="right"><tr><td><font size="-1"><a href="Is-Dayton-Failing.pdf" target="_parent"><img src="../../../images/pdf.gif" width="28" height="28" alt="" border="0" align="left"></a>This report is also available for download as an Adobe Acrobat <a href="Is-Dayton-Failing.pdf" target="_parent">PDF file</a></font></td></tr></table> <h2><a name="contents">Table of Contents</a></h2> <ul> <li><a href="/#1">Acknowledgements</a> <li><a href="/#2">Executive Summary</a> <li><a href="/#3" class="small">Introduction: Dayton's Goals</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#3a" class="small"><li>Purpose</a> <a href="/#3b" class="small"><li>Annex by annex</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#4">Annex 1-A: Cease Fire and Mujahedeen</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#4a" class="small"><li>Cessation of Hostilities</a> <a href="/#4b" class="small"><li>Armed Civilian Groups: Militia and Paramilitary</a> <a href="/#4c" class="small"><li>Foreign Troops: the Osama Bin Laden Connection</a> <a href="/#4d" class="small"><li>Who Pays the Rent?</a> <a href="/#4e" class="small"><li>War Criminals</a> <a href="/#4f" class="small"><li>The Fear of Body Bags: Why Dayton Isn't Working</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#5">Annex 1-B: Regional Stabilization</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#5a" class="small"><li>Purpose</a> <a href="/#5b" class="small"><li>Confidence and Security Building Measures</a> <a href="/#5c" class="small"><li>Implementation</a> <a href="/#5d" class="small"><li>The Standing Committee on Military Matters</a> <a href="/#5e" class="small"><li>The Federation Armies: HVO and ABIH</a> <a href="/#5f" class="small"><li>Funding an Arms Race?</a> <a href="/#5g" class="small"><li>Sub-Regional Arms Control</a> <a href="/#5h" class="small"><li>Agreement on Regional Arms Control</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#6">Annex 2: Boundaries and Brcko</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#6a" class="small"><li>Boundaries</a> <a href="/#6b" class="small"><li>Brcko: A United District?</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7">Annex 3: Elections</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7a" class="small"><li>The Failure of "Democratic" Elections</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7b" class="small"><li>The Fraudulent 1996 Elections: D�j� vu from 1990</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7c" class="small"><li>The 1997 Elections: Gerrymandering Dayton to Death</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7d" class="small"><li>OSCE Intervention</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7e" class="small"><li>The 1998 Election: Poplasen Wins</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7f" class="small"><li>The Potemkin Village of Multi-ethnic Administration</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7g" class="small"><li>Boycotts and Threats of Violence</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7h" class="small"><li>The PEC and the Draft Permanent Election Law</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#7i" class="small"><li>Whither Elections?</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8">Annex 4: The Constitution</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8a" class="small"><li>The House of Cards</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8b" class="small"><li>Why is it Not Implemented?</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8c" class="small"><li>Three Peoples, Two Entities, One Republic</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8d" class="small"><li>Constituent Peoples: Us vs. Them vs. Them</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8e" class="small"><li>Denial of Individual Human Rights</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8f" class="small"><li>Dayton's Glue: The Weakness of the Joint Institutions</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8g" class="small"><li>The Parliamentary Assembly</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8h" class="small"><li>The House of ["Constituent"] Peoples: Institutionalised Discrimination</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8i" class="small"><li>Legislative Ineffectiveness</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8j" class="small"><li>The Presidency</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8k" class="small"><li>Co-presiding: The Council of Ministers</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8l" class="small"><li>The Constitutional Court of BIH</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#8m" class="small"><li>The Failure of Central Institutions</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repb.html#9">Annex 5: Arbitration</a> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10">Annex 6: Human Rights</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10a" class="small"><li>The Human Rights Chamber</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10b" class="small"><li>Speed and Case Load</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10c" class="small"><li>Ombudsperson</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10d" class="small"><li>Why is the Commission Ineffective?</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10e" class="small"><li>The Confusion of Bureaucracy</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10f" class="small"><li>Human Rights Soldiers</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10g" class="small"><li>Human Rights - What They Could Be</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#10h" class="small"><li>Whither Human Rights</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11">Annex 7: Refugee Return - The Key to Dayton</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11a" class="small"><li>How Many Have Actually "Returned?"</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11b" class="small"><li>Republika Srpska: The Ethnic Cleansers Win</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11c" class="small"><li>Federation: Croat Obstruction, Bosniak Semi-Obstruction</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11d" class="small"><li>1999 Returns</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11e" class="small"><li>The Escape Clause: Chapter 1</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11f" class="small"><li>The Ill-Fated Commission</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11g" class="small"><li>Results</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11h" class="small"><li>The Property Fund</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11i" class="small"><li>Refugee Return And Security Issues</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11j" class="small"><li>Minority Return Minimalism</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11k" class="small"><li>Refugee Return Opportunities</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11l" class="small"><li>Refugee Return Strategies</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11m" class="small"><li>The High Representative Acts</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#11n" class="small"><li>The Fear Of What May Develop</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#12">Annex 8: Preserving National Monuments</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#12a" class="small"><li>The List And The Law</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#12b" class="small"><li>The Need For Protection: Radimlja Necropolis And The "Bogomil" Stecci</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#12c" class="small"><li>Non-Compliance And Extinction</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#13">Annex 9: Public Corporations</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#13a" class="small"><li>Commission On Public Corporations</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#13b" class="small"><li>Transportation Commission And Railway Corporation</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#13c" class="small"><li>The Electric Company And Other Non-Existent Corporations</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#14">Annex 10: The Office of the High Representative</a> <ol type="1"><a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#14a" class="small"><li>What Is It?</a> <a href="../../../projects/bosnia/reports/bh51repc.html#14b" class="small"><li>Authority + No Power = Non-Implementation</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#15">Annex 11: International Police Task Force (IPTF)</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#15a" class="small"><li>The Purpose Of Annex 11 <a href="/#15b" class="small"><li>Republika Srpska: Defiance And Reluctance</a> <a href="/#15c" class="small"><li>The Federation: A House Divided�</a> <a href="/#15d" class="small"><li>Un-Federated Federation: Stolac And Croat Separatism</a> <a href="/#15e" class="small"><li>Training</a> <a href="/#15f" class="small"><li>IPTF Limitations: Weak Enforcement Mechanisms</a> <a href="/#15g" class="small"><li>Problems In Practice And Public Perception</a> <a href="/#15h" class="small"><li>And Finally...The Courts</a> <a href="/#15i" class="small"><li>Whither IPTF?</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#16">Conclusion</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#16a" class="small"><li>The International Community's Uphill Struggle</a> <a href="/#16b" class="small"><li>Why Isn't It Working?</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#17">Policy Options</a> <ol type="1"><a href="/#17a" class="small"><li>Option 1) Pull Out Immediately</a> <a href="/#17b" class="small"><li>Option 2) Continue Present Strategies</a> <a href="/#17c" class="small"><li>Option 3) Rewrite DPA</a> <a href="/#17d" class="small"><li>Option 4) Enforce DPA More Robustly</a> <a href="/#17e" class="small"><li>Option 5) Create An International Protectorate</a> <a href="/#17f" class="small"><li>Whither Bosnia And Herzegovina?</a></ol> <p> <li><a href="/#18">Glossary of Abbreviations</a> </ul> <p> </td> </tr> </table>