P R E S S   R E L E A S E

For immediate release : 14 October, 1997

ICG Analysis of 1997 Municipal Election Results

Four weeks after the municipal elections in Bosnia were held on 13-14 September, the Provisional Election Commission (PEC) has finally published and technically certified all of the results. The Organisation for Security and Co-operation's (OSCE) original estimate called for the results to be published within one to two weeks of the elections.

Councils were elected in 135 municipalities - 74 in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Federation) and 61 in the Republika Srpska (RS). In the Central Zone of Mostar (one of the seven municipalities comprising the city), voters were given the choice of casting ballots in one of the other six city municipalities. In addition, voters in Mostar elected a council for the entire city.

The voter turnout was as follows:

	Total	Federation	Republika Srpska
Registered Voters	2,486,429	1,345,923 (54%)	1,140,506 (46%)
Ballots cast	2,174,765	1,163,745 (54%)	1,011,020 (46%)
Invalid ballots cast	77,804 (4%)	45,368 (4%)	32,436 (3%)
Voter turnout	87%	86%	89%

Throughout the country 4,789 municipal council members were elected - 2,118 in the Federation and 2,671 in the RS. On average, each council member represents 519 registered voters - 635 in the Federation and 417 in the RS.

As expected, the three ruling parties won a clear majority of the council seats, a total of 3,230 (67%) - 1,719 (81%) in the Federation and 1,511 (57%) in the RS. Non-national parties (those which do not exclusively represent the rights of one national group) won 299 (6%) of council seats throughout the country - 250 (12%) in the Federation and 49 (2%) in the RS. Also, independent candidates faired poorly, with only 13 elected throughout the country - seven in the Federation and six in the RS. Only in one municipality, Tuzla, did non-national parties win a majority (63%) of the council seats.

1 Political party or coalition achronyms referenced in this release are described here: SDA Coalition - Koalicija za cjelovitu i demokratsku Bosnu i Hercegovinu which includes the SDA or Stranka demokratske akcije, Stranka za BiH, Gradanska demokratska stranka, and Liberali BiH; SDS - Srpska demokratska stranka; HDZ - Hrvatska demokratska zajednica; SDP - Socijaldemokratska partija BiH; SRS - Srpska radikalna stranka Republike Srpske; SPRS - Socialijalisticka partija Republike Srpske.

In the eight municipalities of Sarajevo Canton, 259 council seats were contested. The SDA Coalition¹ was the clear winner with 157 (61%) of the seats, followed by the non-national parties (the SDP and Zdruzena lista '97) with 76 (29%) of the seats. The HDZ trailed third with 12 (5%) of the seats. Only one independent candidate was elected in the Canton.

In the six municipalities of Mostar, the SDA Coalition and HDZ won all 139 council seats, each of them retaining control of "their" three municipalities on either side of the Neretva river divide. In addition, the two ruling parties won all 24 of the city council seats, with the SDA Coalition winning 14 seats and control of the council.

While the SDS lost considerable ground in the RS winning only 980 (37%) of the seats, its more extremist partner SRS won 509 (19%) of the seats. In municipalities west of Brcko, an area largely controlled by police loyal to RS President Biljana Plavsic, the SDS polled only 34% and the SRS 11% of the seats, as opposed to Brcko and east where the SDS won 40% and the SRS 28%. The remaining votes cast by Bosnian Serbs in the RS were divided between the SPRS (loyal to President Slobodan Milosevic of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia) with 11% and a plethora of smaller Serb national parties.

In Banja Luka, President Plavsic's stronghold, the SDS and SRS combined won only 11 out of 70 seats. The SPRS won 12 seats and other Serb national parties won 26. The non-national Serb parties won only 8 seats, the SDA 9 seats and the HDZ 4 seats.

In Brcko, 56 council seats were contested. Serb national parties won 30 seats (17 SDS, 7 SRS, and 6 SPRS) and the remaining 26 (46%) were distributed between the SDA Coalition with 16 seats, the HDZ with 3 seats, and SDP with 7 seats.

2 In currently SDA-controlled Bosanski Petrovac (5,956 registered voters), the Serb displaced won 52% of the seats; in currently HDZ-controlled Drvar (11,568) and Bosanski Grahovo (3,474), the Serb displaced won 63% and 80% of the seats respectively; in currently HDZ-controlled Zepce (13,490), the Bosniac displaced won 93% of the seats; and in currently HDZ-controlled Glamoc (5,779), the Serb and Bosniac displaced combined won 60% of the seats. 3 In currently SDS-controlled Srebrenica (22,831 registered voters), the Bosniac displaced won 52% of the seats.

Candidates representing displaced persons and their right to return to their pre-war municipalities faired better than expected. In six municipalities (4%), the displaced won 50% or more of the council seats - five in the Federation² and one in the RS³. In 42 municipalities (31%), the displaced won between 20 and 49% of the council seats - 14 in the Federation and 28 in the RS. In 47 municipalities (35%), the displaced won up to 20% of the council seats - 26 in the Federation and 21 in the RS. However, in 32 municipalities (29%), all council seats went to a single national group - 22 in the Federation and 10 in the RS.

Thus in addition to the six municipalities where the displaced voters won a majority of the council seats, in 89 (66%) of the municipalities throughout the country, many displaced voters chose to cast their ballots in their pre-war municipalities and elected representatives to the councils, thus clearly expressing their wish to return to their homes across the inter-entity or former confrontation lines. In half of those municipalities, the displaced won a significant minority of council seats. This outcome puts to rest the myth that the people of Bosnia and Herzegovina do not wish to return to their pre-war homes and they do not wish to live with people of different religion.

The analysis tables below summarise the findings detailed above: