The Serbian opposition – often derided as hopelessly weak and divided – is capable of winning elections due later this year, but only if the international community provides more effective and better targeted support for local opposition figures willing to bury their differences and adopt a common electoral list and policy platform – according to a report released today by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The opposition has been most effective at the local level, where politicians – in contrast to their party leaders in Belgrade – have maintained close and productive working relationships with one another and have built up experience in municipal government. If these local leaders manage to harness and channel popular frustration, a groundswell of momentum for change could spread even to the more conservative Belgrade political elites.

The international community must quickly become more effective in assisting Serbia’s democratic forces. The window of opportunity for effecting political change in Serbia is very narrow. President Milosevic sees elections as an opportunity to consolidate his power base, sow discord in opposition ranks and take back control of municipalities lost to the opposition in 1996. His recent crackdown on independent media and the tightening of restrictions on street protests have already made the climate less hospitable than ever for democracy.

The ICG report sets out a number of measures designed to increase the impact of support for the opposition, including the establishment of a donors’ forum; special assistance for local opposition leaders outside Belgrade and for ethnic minority political parties, such as those in Vojvodina and Sandzak; the opening of opposition party offices abroad; and support for the establishment of independent think tanks to provide the opposition with an independent source of policy advice and analysis.

The report also argues for measures to assist independent media in Serbia and increase the capability of broadcasters in neighbouring Montenegro and Bosnia’s Republika Srpska to broadcast into Serbia.

For further information and copies of the ICG report Serbia’s Embattled Opposition….