JAKARTA/BRUSSELS, 10 October 2001: The U.S.-led air strikes against military targets in Afghanistan – accompanied by inevitable civilian casualties – have outraged public opinion in Indonesia. They have also presented President Megawati Soekarnoputri’s government with a huge dilemma: how to maintain its relationship with the United States while not ignoring the sentiments of a large part of its population.

In a new briefing paper, Indonesia: Violence and Radical Muslims, the International Crisis Group (ICG) provides a detailed assessment of recent violence by radical Muslim groups in Indonesia and analyses the potential for radicalism to spread. The paper concludes that while much of the population is angered by the U.S. military campaign, radical Islam is still quite weak and extremist groups have no chance of succeeding in their attempts to turn Indonesia into an Islamic state.

In the past few years, there has been an increase in domestic terrorism in Indonesia – particularly bombings. A series of attacks on churches, an explosion at the Jakarta Stock Exchange, and an attempt to kill the Philippines ambassador to Jakarta were all believed to be carried out by Muslim extremists. Muslim vigilante groups have attacked night-clubs, gambling dens and brothels. And several of the most violent communal conflicts in Indonesia have a religious element. Thousands have died in fighting between Christians and Muslims in Maluku and Sulawesi, while the independence movement in Aceh also identifies with Islam.

However, there is little evidence that the violence in Indonesia is associated with terrorist organisations in the Middle East or Central Asia. ICG President Gareth Evans said: “Much of the violence in Indonesia can be adequately explained in domestic terms. The driving force in much of this conflict is also not directly religious, but entwined with ethnic, economic and cultural grievance. And Indonesia’s democratic transition is being accompanied by a crisis of lawlessness that has allowed many groups – including Muslim groups – to flout the law by engaging in violent behaviour with impunity.”

Nevertheless, the U.S. attacks in Afghanistan have given radicals the opportunity to take the lead in expressing the concerns not only of their followers, but also of moderate Muslims who, while supporting specific anti-terrorism measures, are opposed to their country siding with the military invasion of a Muslim nation. The risk of increased violence and radicalism in Indonesia will therefore depend largely on how the U.S. and its partners deal with Afghanistan. The more civilian casualties there are in the military campaign, the more difficult it will be to contain Indonesia’s extremist groups.

Media contacts: Sascha Pichler or Katy Cronin at ICG Brussels, +32 2 536 00 70 or 64; [email protected]
This report and all other ICG publications are available on our website www.crisisweb.org