Macedonia Briefing:

Macedonian Government Holds Together, Eyes Fixed on Upcoming Presidential Poll

June 14, 1999

• Introduction

• Government Preserves a United Front. . .

• But Resignations Trigger Unscheduled Reshuffle

• Liberal Democrats Join the Government

• Further Ministerial Changes Deferred Until Later in the Summer

• Problems of Inexperience and Incompetence Remain to be Tackled

• Ruling Party Holds Congress

• Prime Minister Georgievski Leans Towards Support for Tupurkovski as Coalition's Joint Candidate for the Presidency

• Other Coalition Partners- LDP adn DPA- Fall Into Line

• Opposition Social Democrats Yet to Declare

Introduction

The resignation of the country's economic and health ministers forced Prime Minister Georgievski into an unscheduled reshuffle of his cabinet in mid-May. Further changes are likely in the coming months with a further cabinet re-shuffle expected to precede presidential elections in the fall.

Contrary to early indications that the coalition partners in the government would field rival candidates in the presidential poll, the government now seems set to agree on a joint candidate. Appointing a joint candidate will maximise the chances of a candidate sympathetic to the government winning the presidency. It will also strengthen ties between the ruling parties and help put the government onto a more stable footing. If the government's chosen candidate does win the presidency later in the year, coalition representatives would hold all top positions in Macedonia.

In the circumstances, the ruling coalition - made up of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organisation-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE), the Democratic Alternative (DA), and the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) - has held together remarkably well. All three parties have been careful not to fuel ethnic tensions by enflaming nationalist sentiments. When, on 30 May, DPA Spokeswoman Adelina Marku said that Macedonia should be declared "a multi-ethnic state of the Albanian and Macedonian people," possibly the strongest statement by a leading DPA representative during the crisis, DPA Chairman Arben Xhaferi immediately played down her statement, saying it was "an old thesis and does not mean that this subject will be put as a political question to the ruling coalition." VMRO-DPMNE Spokesman Ljuben Paunovski called Marku's statement "rather unfortunate" and said it was formulated "in an irritating manner, which is why [he did not and should not] comment on it." The way this statement was dealt with shows that the parties in power have matured significantly over the past months and are aware of their responsibility for the stability of the Macedonian state as a whole. For the moment at least it appears that the more contentious inter-ethnic issues have been put on the back burner and will probably be tackled only after the presidential elections in the autumn.

Economics Minister Zanko Cado of the DA resigned unexpectedly on 26 April 1999, citing as a reason his exclusion from economic policy decision-making. According to Cado, many key decisions concerning economic policy were in the hands of other ministers or taken by government councils in which the Economics Minister had little say. Cado used the occasion of his resignation to attack the international community for failing to give greater economic support to Macedonia's in the wake of the launch of air strikes against Yugoslavia and the influx of hundreds of thousands of refugees.

Cado's protests did little to disguise, however, what most took to be his primary motive for resigning; namely a desire to concentrate on his business activities. The Almako Bank, in which he is one of the largest shareholders, is in serious trouble, and it is common knowledge in Macedonia that Cado is keen to devote more time and energy to helping prevent the bank's collapse. There were even unsubstantiated reports that the government would bail out Almako on condition that Cado resigned from the government.

Within three weeks of Cado's resignation, and before his replacement had even announced, Health Minister Stojan Bogdanov became the second minister to leave the government, resigning his post on grounds of ill health. Bogdanov's departure was not completely unexpected: most had assumed that his health problems would force him to leave office sooner rather than later.

Prime Minister Ljubco Georgievski (VMRO-DPMNE) immediately announced a minor reshuffle of Cabinet posts. Two more government members, Agriculture Minister Vladimir Dzabirski and Minister Without Portfolio Gorgi Naumov (both VMRO-DPMNE), lost their jobs in the May reshuffle. On 19 May, the parliament formally endorsed their successors. Mihajlo Tolevski became new economics minister, Dragan Danailovski took over at the Health Ministry, and Marjan Gorcev, thus far head of the Privatisation Agency, was named agriculture minister. All three belong to the same parties as their predecessors.

The decision to bring the LDP into the ruling coalition has increased the prospects of the government's long-term survival. Should the current coalition fall apart for any reason, the VMRO-DPMNE with two of its three current partners could continue to rule the country, with a smaller but still comfortable majority in the parliament.

Secondly, the sacking of Vladimir Dzabirski, who had clearly failed to make headway in the post of agriculture minister, highlights the problem of ministerial inexperience and incompetence that continues to dog the government. While the lack of experience on the part of many members of the government is understandable, indeed inevitable given that most ministers had never previously held cabinet posts, Dzabirski is not alone in suffering from allegations of incompetence. If the government is to strengthen its position in the long-term and achieve progress in implementing its policy agenda, under-performing ministers must be removed to make way for more capable colleagues. Reducing occurrences of corruption and incompetence will be particularly important once Macedonia starts to receive international funds under a future reconstruction plan for the Balkans.

The question of whether the VRMO-DPMNE would support fielding a joint coalition candidate in the upcoming presidential elections was not resolved by the party congress. According to Georgievski, a decision on which candidate VMRO-DPMNE will support will not be taken until later this summer. It is likely that an announcement will wait until 2 August, the anniversary of the Ilinden Uprising against the Ottoman Empire organised by the (then) VMRO in 1903.

The broader VMRO-DPMNE leadership survived the party congress unscathed, despite earlier predictions that a number of key individuals would be demoted. In December 1998, several old-time heavyweights within the party had been removed from top leadership positions and further shake-ups were widely expected. Several top VMRO-DPMNE leaders had been named as likely candidates for demotion.

The most prominent individual on the danger list was Finance Minister and Deputy VMRO-DPMNE Chairman Boris Stojmenov, who in recent months has come under repeated attack for mixing government work and private business interests. Stojmenov, one of Macedonia's most successful businessmen, has been a key player within VMRO-DPMNE, not least by virtue of his role as an important contributor to party funds. It has been known for some time that he would like to become the party's candidate for president. However, with the party now in power and the Social Democrats' control over the economy and state media broken, Stojmenov's role has become less important and his influence in party circles has diminished.

Deputy VMRO-DPMNE Chairwoman and Deputy Prime Minister Dosta Dimovska, who is in charge of personnel issues both in the party and public service, was also rumoured to be on the way out. Other veterans who were reportedly poised to lose top party positions and possibly their government posts included Defence Minister Nikola Kljusev, Culture Minister Dimitar Dimitrov, and Émigré Issues Minister Martin Trenevski.

Ultimately, however, any plans to remove or demote senior party officials appears to have been put aside, at least until the next government re-shuffle when some may yet be replaced by younger up-and-coming figures.

Prime Minister Georgievski leans towards support for Tupurkovski as coalition's joint candidate for the presidency�

For several months earlier in the year, VMRO-DPMNE support for Tupurkovski's presidential bid looked unlikely. Tupurkovski, who heads the newly-established Agency for Reconstruction and Development, came under attack for failing to attract foreign capital. Apart from the spectacular agreement with the Republic of China (Taiwan), under which Macedonia is due to receive financial aid and possibly direct investment in return for diplomatic recognition, the overall picture is still grim. The initial excitement over the agreement with Taiwan has already been tainted by a growing sense of public disappointment at the lack of concrete results. Besides, Tupurkovski has kept a rather low profile and has avoided taking a clear position on many important issues over the past months. Since the start of the NATO campaign against Yugoslavia and the refugee crisis, he has been most conspicuous by his absence from Macedonia, spending much time with his family which lives in the United States or on official and semi-official trips abroad.

Tupurkovski's apparent drop in popularity and visibility, coupled with the belief of many within VMRO-DPMNE that as the largest political party they need to field their own presidential candidate, suggested that he might find himself without the backing of his bigger political partner. This would have reduced his chances to win the presidential elections and might even have prompted him not to run at all.

On the VMRO-DPMNE side, several names of potential presidential candidates were put forward. Boris Stojmenov was one of the first contenders, but his name disappeared as it became clear that he did not have Georgievski's backing. Among the most serious contenders later on were Deputy Foreign Minister Boris Trajkovski and Marjan Gorcev. Both enjoy the Prime Minister's trust, especially Trajkovski, who has been Georgievski's loyal lieutenant for many years. Trajkovski also has also grown in stature and popularity since he was named the Government's co-ordinator for dealing with international organisations during the refugee crisis. On the other hand, Trajkovski may find it hard to win support from parts of his own party because he is a practising Methodist, which may be hard to swallow for those who equate being Macedonian with being Orthodox.

Ultimately, however, Georgievski seems to have been convinced that the risk of a fracture in the coalition, in the event that VMRO-DPMNE fields its own candidate for the presidency, was too high. As a result, the Prime Minister seems to be leaning towards supporting Tupurkovski's candidacy after all. Since those within the party opposed to Tupurkovski running as the sole coalition candidate have so far failed to agree on an alternative candidate for the nomination, Georgievski stands a good chance of convincing his party to support his line. Georgievski's sober reminder to delegates at his party's recent congress that VMRO-DPMNE had never won an absolute majority in elections on its own and that the 1998 election victory was due to the coalition with the DA, was seen as preparing the ground for Tupurkovski's nomination as the sole standard-bearer for the coalition.

If Tupurkovski does receive the support of the DA's political partners, his party will pay a price. Already, the DA is over-represented in the government and other top jobs, considering its size and its share of votes in the last elections. Consequently, the party is set to relinquish some of the most important and prestigious posts it currently holds. Most notably, Chairman of the Parliament Savo Klimovski will probably have to make room for a VMRO-DPMNE candidate, and Foreign Minister Aleksandar Dimitrov is expected to be replaced by Boris Trajkovski.

The DPA is also very unlikely to field a candidate in the Presidential elections. Earlier, there was some discussion that the party might field a joint candidate with the (opposition) ethnic Albanian Party of Democratic Prosperity, with the aim of maximising support for a single ethnic Albanian candidate representing the two main Albanian parties. Nonetheless, some DPA voters may peel away to support an ethnic Albanian candidate in the first round if there is one.

Skopje, 14 June 1999

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