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<h1>L'EFFET MANDELA - Evaluation et perspectives du processus de paix burundais</h1>
<p class="small">18 Avril 2000</p>
<h3>CONTENTS</h3>
<p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#1">SYNTHESE</a>
<p>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#2">INTRODUCTION</a>
<p>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3">LE PROCESSUS D'ARUSHA A UN POINT DE NON RETOUR ?</a>
<p>
<ol type="1">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a">L'Etat des discussions</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a1">Commission I sur la nature du conflit</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a2">Commission II sur la d�mocratie
et la bonne gouvernance</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a3">Commission III sur la paix et la
s�curit�</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a4">Commission IV sur la reconstruction
et le d�veloppement</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a5">Commission V sur les garanties
de l'accord:</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3a6">Bilan</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3b">Echecs et r�ussites de l'approche Nyerere</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3b1">Des n�gociations � 18</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3b2">Une comp�tition entre le processus
interne et le processus externe</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3b3">L'�chec du cessez-le-feu</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3b4">Attitude internationale et personnalisation
du processus</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3c">La nomination de Mandela, un tournant dans
le processus de paix</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3c1">Les int�r�ts de la r�gion</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3c2">Les int�r�ts de l'Afrique du Sud</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3c3">Les int�r�ts du gouvernement burundais</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#3c4">L'approche Mandela : un accord
en juin ?</a>
<p>
</ul>
</ol>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4">LES DEFIS AU PROCESSUS DE PAIX</a>
<p>
<ol type="1">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a">La violence</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a1">Structure de la r�bellion</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a2">Guerre psychologique et mont�e des
ench�res</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a3">La r�bellion veut-elle n�gocier ?</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a4">La dimension r�gionale du conflit</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a5">La tentation de la guerre pour l'arm�e
burundaise</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a6">La politique de regroupement des
populations � Bujumbura rural</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep1.html#4a7">Une arm�e fatigu�e de la guerre ?</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b">Strat�gie de survie politique, �volution
des alliances entre partis et fragmentation politique au Burundi</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b1">Le recentrage des partis tutsi autour
du pouvoir Buyoya</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b2">Le FRODEBU divis�</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b3">Alliances entre groupes en exil</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b4">L'occasion rat�e du partenariat</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b5">La Convergence, une tentative de
d�stabilisation du partenariat</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b6">FRODEBUs et G7</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b7">L'A.NA.C et les accords PARENA-FRODEBU</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b8">Derni�re ligne droite et �mergence
de deux blocs</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4b9">Un réalignement des partis
tutsi ?</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c">La transition, enjeu num�ro 1 des n�gociations</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c1">Les int�r�ts r�els ne sont pas encore
n�goci�s</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c2">Les opinions publiques</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c3">" L'ennemi c'est la peur "</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c4">La situation �conomique et sociale
contribue � l'�miettement de l'autorit�</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#4c5">Sc�narios � �viter</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#5">CONCLUSION</a>
<p>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6">RECOMMANDATIONS</a>
<p>
<ol type="1">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6a">Au nouveau m�diateur Nelson Mandela :</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc" class="small">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6a1">Sur la question de la r�bellion</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6a2">Sur la question de la transition
et des garanties de l'accord</a><br>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6a3">Sur la question des peurs et r�sistances
au processus de paix</a>
<p>
</ul>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#6b">Aux gouvernements occidentaux et aux bailleurs
de fonds :</a>
<p>
</ol>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#7">Annexes:</a>
<p>
<ul type="disc">
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#7a">CHRONOLOGIE DES EVENEMENTS AU BURUNDI ENTRE
1959 ET 2000</a>
<p>
<li><a href="../../../projects/burundi/reports/bu11rep2.html#7b">GLOSSAIRE</a><br>
</ul>
</ul>
<p>
<br><p>
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