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  The Taiwan Strait Flashpoint
How to maintain the peace between China and Taiwan

Beijing/Taipei/Washington/Brussels, 6 June 2003: In three major new reports published simultaneously today, the International Crisis Group (ICG) analyses the erosion of the 'One China' principle that has helped to maintain a fragile peace between China and Taiwan for over three decades. The reports assess the chances of military confrontation across the Taiwan Strait - and spell out what Beijing, Taipei, Washington and the wider international community can and should do to avoid it.

Taiwan Strait I: What's Left of 'One China'?*, charts the way in which, over the last ten years, Taiwan has come to assert, as part of its new democratic identity, that it is not only a separate political entity, but an independent sovereign country. The longstanding formula, whereby both sides supported 'one China' but had differing interpretations of what this meant, is now on the point of final fragmentation. China refuses to compromise its position, and has not renounced the use of force as a means of making the 'one China' principle a reality.

"Taiwan has moved right away - far more than most realise - from accepting that it and the mainland are part of one country", said ICG President Gareth Evans. "Neither side wants war, but positions on the sovereignty issue are now so far apart, and so intensely held, that the risk of war must continue to be taken seriously."

Taiwan Strait II: The Risk of War* addresses in detail the chance of military confrontation, describing what is known about each side's capability and intentions, and the significance in this context of the Taiwan-U.S. defence relationship and the U.S. regional strategic presence. The conclusion is that despite its ballistic missile deployments, China has no capacity for the foreseeable future to launch a successful major military assault on Taiwan, and that it is operating far more on the political or psychological level of conflict rather than the military.

Nonetheless, ICG argues, there is still a real chance of lower-level threats and coercive measures escalating out of control, and it is critically necessary that both parties, and the U.S., both unilaterally and between them, take transparency enhancing and confidence building steps to lower the risk of miscalculation and misunderstanding. This report urges China to reduce or at least freeze its missile deployments; it also recommends that the U.S. continue to be extremely cautious about approving arms sales to Taiwan, and that it visibly slow the pace of enhancement in U.S.-Taiwan military ties if China softens its military posture.

Taiwan Strait III: The Chance of Peace* examines the many positive economic and social dimensions to the relationship between Taiwan and China which can, properly handled, defuse dangerous political and military tension over Taiwan's status. ICG urges the resumption of high level political contacts - with greater emphasis on concrete cross-Strait cooperation and interchanges (such as direct transport links, trade, investment, exchanges, joint oil exploration and fisheries ventures), and less on high-profile arguments about recognition of the 'one China' principle. One intriguing possibility for both sides to work on would be for Taipei to host at least one event - e.g. baseball - of the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games.

This report also argues that international community should continue to hold the line against de jure recognition of Taiwan as a state, but that UN member states - including China itself - should make some greater accommodation with 'status sentiment' in Taiwan by actively supporting Taiwan's membership of international organisations where statehood is not a requirement. And they should also be prepared to support Taiwan's participation - though not membership - where appropriate (e.g. observer status at the WHO's World Health Assembly) in organisations where statehood is a requirement.

"Despite apparently irreconcilable positions on the big issues of principle, and a disconcertingly higher profile for military measures since 1995, there is a significant overlap in the short to medium term goals of China and Taiwan in terms of practical, day to day matters. Less rhetorical provocation, and sustained progress in these areas, can provide a path to peace for a number of years yet", Gareth Evans said.


MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44 20 7981 0330 [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org

The International Crisis Group (ICG) is an independent, non-profit, multinational organisation, with over 90 staff members on five continents, working through field-based analysis and high-level advocacy to prevent and resolve deadly conflict.



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