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  A Middle East Roadmap to Where?

Amman/Washington/Brussels, 2 May 2003: Scepticism about the Middle East Roadmap is warranted: in its current form, it is unlikely to lead to its stated destination – a final and comprehensive settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict by 2005. But it could still be a catalyst for change, according to a new report A Middle East Roadmap to Where?*, by the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The Roadmap has two major flaws. It basically adheres to the same failed gradualist, sequential logic of the Oslo agreement, and it does not provide a detailed, fleshed-out definition of a permanent status agreement. “We are looking at interminable disputes about process”, said ICG President Gareth Evans, “when what is needed is total engagement on substance”.

But ICG does not believe the Roadmap is condemned to irrelevance. It is a very public reminder of first principles: the need to end violent confrontation, to cease settlement activity, and to rapidly replace occupation and conflict with a permanent political settlement in which a viable and sovereign Palestinian state lives alongside a secure Israel.

ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said: “For better or for worse, the Roadmap is the only diplomatic instrument available, endorsed by all relevant international players and at least rhetorically embraced by the two protagonists. The challenge is to build on its strengths while being aware of its inherent limitations”.

The ICG report makes some specific recommendations to the Quartet and other parties about how to maximise the effectiveness of the new approach, including:

  • Flesh out and promote the ‘Endgame’ – that is, the core elements of a permanent, comprehensive political settlement, emphasising the aim of reaching it by 2005.

  • Avoid protracted negotiations over the definition of a settlement freeze or the characteristics of the Palestinian state with interim borders. Focus rather on what is required for a final political settlement: settlement evacuation and a permanent two-state solution.

  • Deploy at least 50 highly professional monitors to supervise and verify implementation of the Roadmap, with the capacity to deploy at potential flashpoints.

ICG urges the United States to resist attempts to dilute the Roadmap and calls for the appointment of a credible Special Envoy, empowered by President Bush to press for and supervise implementation.

The Palestinian Authority and Palestinian organisations, for their part, should publicly and firmly condemn armed attacks, in particular suicide bombings, and create an effective security apparatus that will take pre-emptive action to prevent acts of violence on Israeli civilians.

And, consistent with legitimate security requirements, the government of Israel should cease the practice of military incursions, targeted assassinations, home demolitions, collective punishment and actions that endanger civilians. It should lift closures and other restrictions that affect normal civilian activity, as well as travel and movement restrictions on Yasir Arafat.


MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44-(0)20 7981 0330 – email: [email protected]

Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org

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