Amman/Brussels, 25 March 2003: The International Crisis Group (ICG) urges
establishment of a UN transitional civil authority in Iraq as soon as possible after hostilities have
ceased. Both the UN Secretariat and the United States are reluctant to follow this path, but there
is no better option.
A new ICG report* published today,
War in Iraq: Political Challenges after the Conflict, assesses options for governing post-war Iraq.
The first considered is assumption of full authority by the U.S. However, this risks alienating Iraqis
and would confirm the view held by many that Washington nurtures imperial designs. It would also
create a serious anti-American backlash in the broader region.
An alternative proposal is rapid establishment of an interim Iraqi authority to
which the U.S. would transfer power and with which it would jointly govern. This has garnered more
support but is also flawed. The fundamental problem is that no pre-identifiable, optimal Iraqi
candidates exist, and too little is known about the actual preferences or aspirations of people
inside the country.
"Members of the exiled opposition have staked claims", said Loulouwa al-Rachid,
ICG Iraq analyst, "but there are serious doubts about the degree to which they are genuinely
representative. Inside Iraq, numerous forces will probably come forward quickly but they are likely
to be dominated by those who gained prominence during the years of Baath party rule".
ICG Middle East Program Director Robert Malley said:
"It would be a mistake to short-circuit the domestic political contest by prematurely picking a winner.
Under either of these scenarios, the bulk of Iraqis inside Iraq – Sunni and Shiite, Arab, Kurd, and
others who have been brutally disenfranchised for over three decades – would remain voiceless".
Therefore the best road for Iraq and the international community is to set up a
UN transitional civil authority with full executive/legislative powers to run the country until a
legitimate, democratic, permanent Iraqi authority can be established. To minimise perceptions of
foreign domination and make most effective use of local resources, existing administrative structures
ought to be utilised to the maximum extent possible. A strong international security presence under
U.S. command will be necessary – but, optimally, established as soon as possible as multinational and
endorsed by the Security Council. The UN should quickly start organising elections so that Iraqis
can choose local and sectoral representatives who can serve as leaders on the national scene.
The task will not be easy. The UN is not eager to play this role; it has not
planned for it; it will have to coordinate with a very significant U.S. military presence on the
ground; and the longer it is there, the more Iraqis will chafe at not being in charge. However it is
the best way to minimise perceptions of foreign domination, make best use of local resources and
ensure security and law and order. Only then can Iraq develop its own indigenous, pluralistic polity
capable of selecting legitimate leadership.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44-(0)20 7981 0330
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536 00 65
Kathy Ward (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
