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  Blueprint Needed for Peace in Somalia
Peace talks in danger of collapsing

Mogadishu/Brussels, 6 March 2003: A detailed report by the International Crisis Group warns that Somalia's peace talks are in danger of collapsing. Negotiating A Blueprint for Peace in Somalia*, published today, says Kenya's new special envoy, Ambassador Bethuel Kiplagat, must rescue the talks from failure, but he cannot do this alone.

ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast said: "The peace process, which began with great promise, needs much stronger leadership from the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves".

At this critical point in the Somali National Peace Conference, the Somali public is becoming suspicious and its support for the process is flagging. A serious problem is that the faction leaders and the civil society representatives at the talks are self-appointed, with the real risk that the current negotiation will produce another "government in exile" unable to provide a working administration inside the country that represents popular will.

ICG Senior Analyst on Somalia Matthew Bryden said: "The Conference is becoming a 'cake-cutting' exercise in power-sharing by an unelected and only partially representative political elite that threatens to repeat the mistakes of earlier failed initiatives".

There are also deep divisions among the Somali factions and civil society. Several factions have withdrawn or suspended their participation in the process. Heavy fighting has been continuing in Mogadishu since the end of February 2003, and new fighting erupted in Baydhowa earlier this month. Indeed, the 27 October 2002 ceasefire has been violated so often that it is practically meaningless.

The Leaders Committee of the Conference appears to be tempted once again to try for a 'quick fix', by declaring an interim government first and leaving the details of a durable settlement to be worked out later. However if there is to be any hope of success, the new chairman and his team must redirect the process toward constructing a comprehensive blueprint for peace and governance.


MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]

Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website: www.crisisweb.org


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