Mogadishu/Brussels, 6 March 2003: A detailed report by the
International Crisis Group warns that Somalia's peace talks are in danger of collapsing.
Negotiating A Blueprint for Peace in Somalia*, published today, says Kenya's
new special envoy, Ambassador Bethuel Kiplagat, must rescue the talks from
failure, but he cannot do this alone.
ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast said: "The
peace process, which began with great promise, needs much stronger leadership
from the mediators, the international community and the Somali factions themselves".
At this critical point in the Somali National Peace
Conference, the Somali public is becoming suspicious and its support for the
process is flagging. A serious problem is that the faction leaders and the
civil society representatives at the talks are self-appointed, with the real
risk that the current negotiation will produce another "government in exile"
unable to provide a working administration inside the country that represents
popular will.
ICG Senior Analyst on Somalia Matthew Bryden said: "The Conference
is becoming a 'cake-cutting' exercise in power-sharing by an unelected and only partially
representative political elite that threatens to repeat the mistakes of earlier failed initiatives".
There are also deep divisions among the Somali factions and
civil society. Several factions have withdrawn or suspended their participation
in the process. Heavy fighting has been continuing in Mogadishu since the end of
February 2003, and new fighting erupted in Baydhowa earlier this month. Indeed, the
27 October 2002 ceasefire has been violated so often that it is practically meaningless.
The Leaders Committee of the Conference appears to be tempted once
again to try for a 'quick fix', by declaring an interim government first and leaving the
details of a durable settlement to be worked out later. However if there is to be any hope
of success, the new chairman and his team must redirect the process toward constructing
a comprehensive blueprint for peace and governance.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
*Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org