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  Liberia Unravelling: A textbook case for international action

Freetown/Brussels, 19 August 2002: Liberia is showing all the major warning signs of political, military, economic and social deterioration. The question is whether the international community will not only recognise these signs, but also muster the will to take effective action to prevent broader violence. A new ICG briefing paper, Liberia: Unravelling, warns that civilians are already panicked and will be the biggest losers if fighting escalates.

ICG Africa Program Co-Director Fabienne Hara said: “The international community often bemoans the fact that it lacks effective early warning tools for major humanitarian crises and conflicts. Here it has a textbook case. However Liberia has slipped way down the priority list of the United States, and there are significant differences between the EU and U.S. approaches. This awkward international stance has produced a wounded Liberian government headed by an increasingly desperate President Charles Taylor, faced with a steady civil war and a population that is braced for the worst”.

The civil war in Liberia pits government forces against the rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD). While the government has enjoyed some recent battlefield successes, there are constant rumours and fears of LURD counteroffensives, including of an assault on the capital, Monrovia.

President Charles Taylor has already been identified by ICG and the international community as the leader responsible for much of the instability in West Africa. Sanctions and isolation have put him and his government under enormous pressure. But Taylor faces presidential elections in 2003 and currently says he intends to stand for re-election. If he does, he would be virtually assured of victory. For the U.S., UK, EU and regional governments to do nothing would betray long-term hopes for Liberia and likely leave the country with six more years of very grim prospects.

John Norris, ICG senior adviser, said: “Removal of Taylor by force, however, is an unattractive option that would have devastating consequences for the civilian population. Opposition parties are ineffective, fractious and have shown little interest in any political program other than assuming the presidency”.

Controversial as it is, a more productive approach may be to ease Taylor out. Through an international Contact Group, and subject to certain conditions, negotiators could seek Taylor’s agreement to leave office in October 2003. The terms could include that he goes into exile and removes himself permanently from Liberian politics and military affairs. In exchange he might be granted immunity from prosecution by the Special Court being established in Sierra Leone. A small number of advisers could be allowed to follow him into exile.

ICG also sets out a strategy in this briefing paper that includes a ceasefire, introduction of a UN peace keeping force and establishment of an impartial transition government after 2003.


MEDIA CONTACTS
Nathalie De Broyer (Brussels) +32-(0)2-502.90.38
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-408 8012

All ICG reports are available on our website www.crisisweb.org


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