Freetown/Brussels, 19 August 2002: Liberia is showing all the major warning signs of political,
military, economic and social deterioration. The question is whether the
international community will not only recognise these signs, but also muster
the will to take effective action to prevent broader violence. A new ICG
briefing paper,
Liberia: Unravelling, warns that civilians are already panicked
and will be the biggest losers if
fighting escalates.
ICG Africa Program Co-Director Fabienne Hara said: “The
international community often bemoans the fact that it lacks effective early
warning tools for major humanitarian crises and conflicts. Here it has a
textbook case. However Liberia has slipped way down the priority list of the
United States, and there are significant differences between the EU and U.S.
approaches. This awkward international stance has produced a wounded Liberian
government headed by an increasingly desperate President Charles Taylor, faced
with a steady civil war and a population that is braced for the worst”.
The civil war in Liberia pits government forces against the
rebel Liberians United for Reconciliation and Democracy (LURD). While the
government has enjoyed some recent battlefield successes, there are constant
rumours and fears of LURD counteroffensives, including of an assault on the
capital, Monrovia.
President Charles Taylor has already been identified by ICG
and the international community as the leader responsible for much of the
instability in West Africa. Sanctions and isolation have put him and his
government under enormous pressure. But Taylor faces presidential elections in
2003 and currently says he intends to stand for re-election. If he does, he
would be virtually assured of victory. For the U.S., UK, EU and regional
governments to do nothing would betray long-term hopes for Liberia and likely
leave the country with six more years of very grim prospects.
John Norris, ICG senior adviser, said: “Removal of Taylor by
force, however, is an unattractive option that would have devastating
consequences for the civilian population. Opposition parties are ineffective,
fractious and have shown little interest in any political program other than
assuming the presidency”.
Controversial as it is, a more productive approach may be to
ease Taylor out. Through an international Contact Group, and subject to certain
conditions, negotiators could seek Taylor’s agreement to leave office in
October 2003. The terms could include that he goes into exile and removes
himself permanently from Liberian politics and military affairs. In exchange he
might be granted immunity from prosecution by the Special Court being
established in Sierra Leone. A small number of advisers could be allowed to
follow him into exile.
ICG also sets out a strategy in this briefing paper that
includes a ceasefire, introduction of a UN peace keeping force and
establishment of an impartial transition government after 2003.
MEDIA CONTACTS
Nathalie De Broyer
(Brussels) +32-(0)2-502.90.38
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-408 8012
All ICG reports are available on our website www.crisisweb.org