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  All Bark and No Bite? The International Response to Zimbabwe’s Crisis

Harare/Washington/Brussels, 25 January 2002: The 9-10 March presidential election is the decisive date for Zimbabwe’s intensifying crisis. International action, not merely further expressions of concern or warning, is needed if Zimbabwe is to head off massive destabilisation that will invariably affect all of southern Africa.

ICG today issues a new report, All Bark and No Bite? The International Response to Zimbabwe’s Crisis, urging coordinated action between the European Union, the United States, the Commonwealth and the Southern African Development Community (SADC). ICG argues that targeted sanctions, in the form of visa restrictions and the freezing of overseas assets, should be immediately directed at a small group of top government leaders in Zimbabwe, allowing for incremental increases in pressure through expansion to additional officials. The sanctions should be provisional. If the conduct of the election is satisfactory, they should be lifted.

“There is too much bark and too little bite in dealing with Zimbabwe,” according to ICG Africa Program Co-Director John Prendergast. “If meaningful action is not taken now, the leadership in Harare will continue to believe that it can act with total impunity.”

Draconian new legislation intended to stifle the media and opposition has already been widely criticised. ICG’s report also describes the growth of youth militias who are joining the so-called “war vets” in farm expropriations and crushing opposition to ZANU-PF. Zimbabwe is becoming increasingly militarised, with vast increases in the budgets of the army and Central Intelligence Organisation, and funding for the “war vets.”

The economy is deteriorating rapidly and serious food shortages – unheard of in such a fertile country – are intensifying. A country that used to be the breadbasket of Southern Africa will have to import 800,000 tons of maize this year. 75 per cent of the population is living below the poverty line and more than 500 people a day are fleeing to South Africa.

The meeting of EU Foreign Ministers on 28-29 January is the next crucial step for the international community - setting the tone for others to follow. On 30 January, the Commonwealth Ministerial Action Group meets to consider Zimbabwe. The U.S., while critical of Mugabe, is yet to act, even though Congress has urged President Bush to use the executive authority he has to impose sanctions at any time. SADC leaders may also be emboldened by a tough EU decision.

EU officials are currently in negotiations with Harare on sending an EU observer mission to Zimbabwe. ICG urges the EU, and all other international actors not to accept empty promises, or minimum standards. It is too risky to wait until after the election to apply maximum pressure. Sanctions imposed after a failed election will be too late for Zimbabwe.

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