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  Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock

PODGORICA/BRUSSELS, 1 August 2001: Ten months after the fall of Slobodan Milosevic, the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) has scored considerable external success in terms of its reintegration into the international community - yet the future of the federation itself remains in doubt. Its two constituent republics, Serbia and Montenegro, are still at loggerheads over their future relationship - with Montenegro's authorities maintaining their independence aim.

In a new report released today, Montenegro: Resolving the Independence Deadlock, the International Crisis Group (ICG) argues that the international community should acknowledge the right of Montenegrins to choose independence, if they ultimately so desire, but should encourage the postponement of any decision until conditions are more favourable.

Meanwhile, the international community should continue to contribute to long-term stability in Montenegro through technical support for reforms, and make its support strictly conditional on progress - especially in making government cleaner, reforming the criminal justice system and taking serious action against organised crime. This would be a more constructive focus for international efforts than maintaining fruitless and counterproductive opposition to Montenegrin independence.

Montenegro is currently facing political deadlock over the independence issue, and prolonged uncertainty risks further polarising opinion in the divided republic. There is a danger that stalemate on the status issue will paralyse the political agenda to the detriment of the government's reform efforts.

These risks can, and should, be avoided. Various initiatives are underway to break the deadlock. A FRY government initiative to draft a new constitution for a revitalised, thinner, federation looks likely to be rejected by Podgorica. Montenegrin President Milo Djukanovic wants negotiations directly with the Serbian government on a new, loose union of fully independent states.

In case Djukanovic's hope for an agreed split cannot be achieved, other exits from the deadlock need to be explored. For now, Montenegro’s governing parties rule out participation at the federal level and insist that they remain on course for an independence referendum by early 2002. While they cannot realistically be expected to abandon their goal, in which they have invested so much political capital, they should be discouraged from proceeding with plans for a referendum in the absence of a broad consensus on the rules and procedures. In the meantime, the Montenegrin authorities should be encouraged to cooperate constructively at the federal level.

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