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  Montenegro: Don't Oppose Independence

Montenegro: Don’t Oppose Independence

Brussels/Podgorica 28 March, 2001: The international community should accept that the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) is, as it stands, unsustainable. Montenegro and Serbia have, for all intents and purposes, come to operate as separate states. In a new report, "Montenegro: Settling for Independence?", the International Crisis Group (ICG) analyses Podgorica’s move to redefine its relationship with Belgrade. ICG argues that the most important contribution the international community can make is to take a neutral stance and support a negotiated resolution.

During Slobodan Milosevic’s final years of power in Belgrade, Montenegro’s elected government was barred from federal institutions. During this time Montenegro received political, technical and financial assistance from the international community.

The assumption in Western capitals was that once Milosevic was gone, Montenegro’s grievances could be addressed within the framework of the FRY. Instead, President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro has charted a course for full independence, promising a referendum if he wins elections scheduled for April. The international community opposes the move, arguing that any “redrawing of borders” risks provoking greater instability.

This international fear is exaggerated. ICG President Gareth Evans says: “With Milosevic gone, the threat that Belgrade will use force against Montenegro has all but disappeared. Opposition parties in Montenegro also show no indication that they will act outside legal, political structures.” ICG also assesses that fears of a domino-effect in Kosovo, Macedonia or Bosnia and Herzegovina are overstated.

Key international interest is not served by heading off Montenegrin moves towards independence, but by encouraging a solution in line with the long-term stabilisation of the region. The international community should help the parties to negotiate on a single currency, a single market, health, education and taxation. By focusing first on such important “details”, Serbia and Montenegro should be able to redefine their relationship on mutually acceptable terms.

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