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  Macedonia: War on Hold

INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GROUP MEDIA RELEASE

Macedonia: War on Hold

SKOPJE/BRUSSELS, 15 August 2001: A peace agreement has been signed in Macedonia, NATO deployment for a soft, short term mission looks imminent and most international facilitators are deservedly congratulating themselves and heading home.

However the intense fighting leading up to the peace deal, and the highly sensitive conditions set by the Macedonian government and the ethnic Albanian rebels to stick to it, mean the period following the agreement is as potentially volatile as that preceding it.

In a new briefing paper, “Macedonia: War On Hold”, the International Crisis Group (ICG) says that in order to succeed, the agreement will require considerable effort and good will by all sides. However there is little trust or even expectation of peace by either Macedonians or ethnic Albanians and a heavy burden will fall on the international community.

NATO in particular must make some difficult decisions very soon. ICG President Gareth Evans said: “NATO cannot limit its mission to 30 days and must be prepared to do more than collect arms that are voluntarily given to it. It must seal the border with Kosovo and should provide the security assurance required to see the 13 August agreement through to parliamentary ratification and implementation. And it must be prepared to use all necessary force to make that assurance real.”

Expanded Western involvement in Macedonia poses major risks, and is politically difficult. But the violence of the past week, even after the agreement was signed, has shown that there is still the potential for a full-blown civil war. Macedonians and Albanians may have reached the point where they are they are not much interested in living together. It is difficult to see how either side will gain greater confidence in the other if NATO leaves after 30 days.

The international community must first rethink NATO’s mandate, but other carrots and sticks – both financial and political can be applied.

The donor’s conference anticipated shortly after ratification of the 13 August agreement is an important opportunity. Macedonia needs foreign assistance not only to repair the damage of the past six months, but also to implement the agreement - and ultimately qualify for European Union membership. Prospective donors, and especially the European Union, should devise a conditionality strategy on assistance to give peace a chance.

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