INTERNATIONAL CRISIS GOUP MEDIA RELEASE

Albania: Shadow Over the Longest Election

TIRANA/BRUSSELS, 23 August 2001: With the Socialist Party decision this week to re-designate Ilir Meta as prime minister – winner of a bitter power struggle with party boss Fatos Nano – Albania is about to get a new government. This follows the longest election in its turbulent post-Communist history. The first round of balloting was held on 24 June but three further rounds of electoral commission and court ordered revotes and recounts ensued over the next month. With rising tensions in Macedonia, the fact that the poll was conducted peacefully was important both for Albania and the region. However, widespread allegations of voting manipulation have cast a serious shadow over the Socialists' victory.

ICG analyst Miranda Vickers said: “It can be argued that parliamentary democracy is finally gaining a tentative hold in Albania. Nevertheless, the refusal (with some justification) of much of the opposition Democratic Party to accept the Socialists’ victory as fairly won, means Albanian politics will continue to be rough, rude and potentially explosive.”

In a briefing paper published today, the International Crisis Group (ICG) says the Socialist government’s stable leadership and economic progress since the anarchy of 1997-1998 were the main reasons Albanians voted for continuity. The government's responsible attitude towards the situations of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, Macedonia and southern Serbia also played a role, though Albanians appear relatively uninterested in the demands of their kin in the former Yugoslavia.

The outcome was welcomed by Albania's neighbours, who now feel confident that Tirana will continue to urge Kosovo and Macedonian Albanians to use dialogue, not violence, to achieve their political aims. Kosovo Albanians realise the Socialist victory has no effect on their ground. The same local police remain in place who, once bribed, turn a blind eye to the trafficking of weapons and the military training of young men along the border.

Albania sorely needs a period of tranquil politics to consolidate gains it has made over the last few years. This may not be possible, however. The Meta-Nano fight is by no means over. The opposition Democratic Party is deeply divided over its chairman, the polarising ex-president, Sali Berisha. The opposition came to this year's election genuinely convinced the socialists had stolen the 1997 elections. It now believes this is also true of the 2001 elections. The months leading up to the election of a new president next year, therefore, may well witness the commencement of popular protest rallies and at least a partial boycott of the parliamentary process by the opposition.

None of that bodes well for a country that only four years ago was on the brink of civil war and must still navigate the currents of ethnic nationalism on several of its borders.