Osh/Brussels, 17 January 2003: The international community
can no longer afford to look at the failing dictatorship of President Saparmurat
Niyazov as that of a comical despot. In a new report,
Cracks in the Marble: Turkmenistan’s Failing Dictatorship,
the International Crisis Group (ICG) warns that his continued
rule is a serious threat to stability in the whole Central Asian region.
Furthermore, there is unlikely to be any improvement in the
situation as long as Niyazov remains in power.
ICG Asia Program Director Robert Templer said: "The frequent
assessment that the regime is unpleasant but fairly stable needs review. The
situation is deeply unstable and dangerous. Internal and external opposition to
the regime continues to grow, with a recent assassination attempt on the
President. The prospects for a peaceful transition are very poor. The
international community, especially Russia, the United States
and the European Union must step up engagement with the Turkmen government,
opposition, NGOs and independent media as a matter of urgency. While it is
conceivable that Niyazov may cling to power for several more years, the
international community should also be prepared for a sudden and violent
struggle for power".
In a detailed analysis, ICG examines the warped economics of
Turkmenistan,
where despite healthy increases in GDP from oil and gas sales and cotton
production, living standards are falling sharply. This is because most of the
profits are controlled by the President and his close colleagues, with little
reaching ordinary people. There is also sufficient evidence from local and
international observers to conclude that government structures are deeply
involved in the drugs trade, and that this is an important alternative source
of 'off-budget' income. Foreign investment has all but stopped and is unlikely
to resume in the current climate.
President Niyazov has dubbed himself
Turkmenbashi, or Father of all Turkmen, with a personality cult to
rival Saddam Hussein’s. He rules with absolute authority and is omnipresent,
controlling all senior appointments in government, the judiciary, media and
other institutions. His enforcers are the Presidential Guard, estimated to be
about 3,000 strong, who have access to tremendous resources and information.
Critics and opponents are imprisoned and sometimes executed. Poverty, drug
abuse, HIV/AIDS, TB and environmental degradation are all getting worse. The
education system has become little more than a way of indoctrinating children
into the cult of Turkmenbashi, while
electoral corruption ensures that he regularly wins 99 per cent of the vote.
Despite the President’s tight grip, the risk of instability
and violence is growing. ICG identifies five main sources of conflict that
could accelerate Turkmenistan’s
disintegration: the underground political struggle within the country,
particularly rising discontent in the security services; serious economic
problems; a weak and increasingly dysfunctional state which provides
opportunities for terrorists; social destruction with a population increasingly
sucked into drugs and crime; and competition between ethnic and clan
groups.
ICG Central Asia analyst Filip Noubel said: "Despite its
isolation, the Turkmen regime is not immune to international pressure. Two of
ICG’s recommendations are that Turkmenistan’s
political, social and economic abuses be raised in the UN Human Rights
Commission annual meeting in February and that the OSCE follow through on
implementation of its special procedures by the U.S.,
the EU and others last December and send a mission to Ashgabat to investigate
human rights concerns. Sanctions and isolation will not work. Critical
engagement and a serious attempt to work towards a peaceful transition of power
should now be at the top of the international agenda in Central Asia".
MEDIA CONTACTS
Katy Cronin (London) +44.20.86.82.93.51
email: [email protected]
Francesca Lawe-Davies (Brussels) +32-(0)2-536.00.65
Jennifer Leonard (Washington) +1-202-785 1601
Read the full ICG report on our website:
www.crisisweb.org
