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  From Kabila to Kabila: Prospects for Peace in the Congo

Nairobi/Brussels, 16 March 2001: Confirmation today that some troop withdrawals have begun in the Democratic Republic of Congo, albeit only small ones, is very welcome in a country shattered by fighting. The long overdue deployment of the United Nations military observer mission, MONUC, is also positive.
However a new report from the International Crisis Group, From Kabila to Kabila: Prospects for Peace in the Congo, says that while there is progress, the divergent interests of the warring parties have still not been satisfied. There have been no serious negotiations yet between the six nations with armies in the DRC, and they continue to struggle for influence and spoils.
Since Laurent Kabila’s assassination two months ago, and his son Joseph’s appointment as President, the demands for disengagement and disarmament in the 1999 Lusaka Cease-fire Agreement have had a better chance. But there has been no progress on an Inter-Congolese Dialogue which is essential if the Congo is to be put back together politically. This forum risks being hijacked by the foreign belligerents, all of whom will use Congolese proxies to push their agendas.
Joseph Kabila’s grip on power is weak and his commitment to peace is uncertain. He relies on external patrons, Zimbabwe and Angola, who are deeply mistrustful of each other. Both want to dominate the DRC’s wealth and its security forces. Uganda and Rwanda – once united against Laurent Kabila, are also exchanging hostile accusations.
Ending the fighting was just the first step. ICG’s President Gareth Evans said: “The Congo needs rebirth. It urgently needs an agreement to form a transition government that includes representatives of all armed and unarmed Congolese groups. It needs a new constitution and elections to legitimise power.”
Mr Evans added: “The international community must remain vigilant, using strict conditions over assistance to President Kabila to overcome the resistance to opening a dialogue. The neutral facilitator, Sir Kesumile Masire, must be given every support to ensure that the interests of the Congolese people, not the warring parties, are served by the Dialogue.”

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